Monthly Labor Market Report: More evidence of labor market cooling

Every day, the Instawork platform handles thousands of transactions involving businesses and hourly professionals, generating a huge amount of data on hourly pay as well as other aspects of the labor market. This report summarizes some of the major trends in demographics, roles, and worker constraints in regions across the United States.

Key points

  • Hourly pay for flexible work rose at the majority of businesses in April but may be heading downward in May across the board.
  • Instawork Pros were less likely to have worked full-time, part-time, and other gig or flexible work in April than in March.
  • In our survey, 83% of Instawork Pros said they had to take care of another person while balancing work schedules.

The data are also compiled into the Instawork Pay Signal Index (PSI) and indexed trends in hourly pay. Because businesses can book shifts in advance on the Instawork platform, the metrics include forward-looking data for the current month as well. Please refer to the appendix for explanations of the methods behind each metric.

In April, as in March, a preponderance of businesses raised hourly pay for flexible workers. But offers heading into May are much more likely to be lower:

1 May 2023 Pay Signal Index - national-1

In-app survey data

Our in-app surveys track Pros' labor market situations on a monthly basis. For details on methods and questionnaires, please see the Methodological Appendix below.

Here is the distribution of Pros by the jobs they worked last month and during the reference week (17 April 2023) this month:

1 May 2023 iaps 2 jobs actual

Each kind of work dropped except for Instawork shifts, which rose slightly. Here is a similar breakdown for the types of jobs Pros wanted to work:

1 May 2023 iaps 2 jobs want

Fewer Pros wanted part-time jobs or Instawork shifts, but the share looking for full-time work was steady. Taken together, these charts suggest Pros were not able to get all the full-time positions they wanted in April, and the labor market may have cooled relative to March.

The willingness to work is still there. Pros actually worked more hours in April than they did in March, with almost 60% working at least 31 hours in the reference week: 

1 May 2023 iaps 2 hours actual

These data were roughly in line with reported preferences for working hours, which rose slightly as well in April:

1 May 2023 iaps 2 hours want

It is possible that spring break holidays affected these numbers somewhat. With Spring Break for many and the major religious holidays in April, Pros may have wanted more hours in the reference week to make up for earlier time off.

We also asked Pros about their care responsibilities, and these were their responses:

1 May 2023 iaps 2 care

Almost 60% of Pros said they had to care for children in addition to working, and only 17% said they had no care responsibilities at all. Once again, these data strongly suggest that Pros are working because they have to in order to make ends meet for their families.

Recent growth in flexible work

Because flexible work is one of several options that workers might have in the labor market, increases in flexible work may mean decreases in other areas. The following statistics measure differences in shift work booked on the Instawork platform (measured in hours), month over month:

Regions with the highest growth of flexible workRegions with the lowest growth of flexible work1. Columbus, OH1. Las Vegas, NV2. Inland Empire, CA2. Houston, TX3. Bay Area, CA3. Orlando, FL4. Boston, MA4. Portland, ORRoles with the highest growth of flexible workRoles with the lowest growth of flexible work1. Food service worker1. Runner2. Concession/stand worker2. Counter staff/cashier3. Custodial3. Warehouse associate – entry level4. Event server4. Prep cookGrowth of flexible work was strongest in some of the highest-income markets as well as via our growing presence in the Columbus area. Areas that experienced a Spring Break boom were more likely to have lower growth. Concession and event shifts are picking up with the opening of baseball season and the spring events season.

Technical note: To control for the growth of the Instawork platform, only business locations that have participated for at least two months before the start of the comparison period are included. Changes in hours are included only for roles for which businesses booked shifts during both months.

Demographics of flexible workers

The share of men working shifts on the platform fell again, while the share of white workers dropped for the first time in nine months:

1 May 2023 gender breakdown for jobs package
1 May 2023 race breakdown for jobs package

Pay Signal Index

Increases in hourly pay for flexible work dominated across business involved in production, logistics, and sales in April. In services, pay was largely steady, with a slightly more businesses lowering pay in building and grounds cleaning. These increases suggest the tight labor market for companies and the twin challenges of rising prices and higher interest rates for workers are continuing to bite:

1 May 2023 Pay Signal Index for building and grounds cleaning
1 May 2023 Pay Signal Index for food preparation and serving
1 May 2023 Pay Signal Index for personal care and service
1 May 2023 Pay Signal Index for production
1 May 2023 Pay Signal Index for sales
1 May 2023 Pay Signal Index for transportation and material moving

Indexed trends in hourly pay 

Hourly pay was steady in most roles in April, though there was some variation in service roles. Pay for counter staff, cashiers, and concession and stand workers did rise as outdoor activities and sporting events ramped up. Pay continued to fall for bartenders, and pay offers for May are starting to decline for cooking positions and dishwashers:

1 May 2023 pay trend for bartender
1 May 2023 pay trend for busser
1 May 2023 pay trend for concession or stand worker
1 May 2023 pay trend for counter staff or cashier
1 May 2023 pay trend for custodial
1 May 2023 pay trend for dishwasher
1 May 2023 pay trend for event server
1 May 2023 pay trend for event setup and takedown
1 May 2023 pay trend for general labor
1 May 2023 pay trend for line cook
1 May 2023 pay trend for prep cook
1 May 2023 pay trend for runner
1 May 2023 pay trend for warehouse associate - entry level
1 May 2023 pay trend for warehouse associate - intermediate

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Methodological Appendix

Instawork in-app surveys

Five surveys per month are delivered via the Instawork Pro app. Random samples of Pros who have worked at least one shift in the past 12 months may be shown a one-question survey when they open the details for a shift. No Pro receives more than one survey per month. The surveys continue until they collect 1,000 responses.

The repeating questions on Pros' labor market situations are as follows:

1. Please mark all the kinds of work you will do this week:

  • regular full-time job
  • regular part-time job
  • shifts booked on Instawork
  • other app-based or temporary work
  • no work

2. Please mark all the kinds of work you would like to do each week:

  • regular full-time job
  • regular part-time job
  • shifts booked on Instawork
  • other app-based or temporary work
  • no work

3. In total, how many hours will you work this week at all your jobs?

  • 0-10
  • 11-20
  • 21-30
  • 31-40
  • 41-50
  • 51 or more

4. In total, how many hours would you like to work each week at all your jobs?

  • 0-10
  • 11-20
  • 21-30
  • 31-40
  • 41-50
  • 51 or more

Instawork PSI (Pay Signal Index)

The PSI gauges the overall direction of changes in hourly pay from month to month, much the way a purchasing managers’ index measures supply chain activity.

To begin, for each month, we measure the average hourly pay offered by each business on our platform for each role in each region. If the business offered shifts for the same role in the same region during the previous month, we record whether the average rose or fell. A rise is recorded as +1, a fall as -1, and no change as 0.

Next we weight this signal by the average number of shifts the business offered for that role across the two months. For example, if the business offered 10 shifts for line cooks in the Houston area during February and 18 shifts for the same role in the same region during March, then the weight would be 14.

We group these weighted signals by the Census Bureau’s occupational categories and take the weighted average for each category. Then we multiply the weighted average by 50 and add it to 50. This yields a PSI between 0 and 100. At 0, the PSI implies that all businesses in the sample offered lower pay. At a PSI of 100, all businesses offered higher pay. At a PSI of 50, businesses that raised or lowered pay did so with equal weight (or loosely, equal numbers of shifts).

At present we cover six major occupational categories. These are the numbers of workers they represented in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ counts of hourly workers in 2022, and their shares of the total reported number of hourly workers:

 

Occupational categoryWorkers (1,000s)Share of hourly workersTransportation and material moving8,40510.7%Food preparation and serving6,9618.8%Sales6,9198.8%Production6,5838.4%Building and grounds cleaning3,5514.5%Personal care and service1,8292.3%

To create a national PSI, we calculate a weighted average by weighting the PSI for each occupational category by its share of hourly workers above. The resulting national PSI represents occupational categories that cover roughly 44% of hourly workers in the American labor force.

Indexed trends in hourly pay

Sample selection for our pay trends is similar to the method for the PSI. Businesses that book shifts for the same role in the same region during consecutive months are the units of observation. For each pair of months, we calculate the change in the average hourly pay offered for the given role in the given region. Examples of roles are line cooks, forklift drivers, and custodial staff.

Next, as for the PSI, we weight the changes in pay by the average number of shifts across the two months. Then we calculate a weighted average of the changes at a national level for each role. To create an indexed trend, we have chosen July 2021 as the starting point, where the indexed hourly pay for each role is set to 100. We then use the monthly changes to map the trend from August 2021 onward.

At present we publish the indexed trends in hourly pay for 14 of the roles staffed on our platform:

Screen Shot 2022-03-28 at 10.47.23 AM

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