Warehouses Lead March Pay Growth as Businesses Brace for Trade Policy Shifts

Every day, the Instawork platform handles thousands of transactions involving businesses and hourly workers, generating a huge amount of data on hourly pay as well as other aspects of the labor market. This brief includes Instawork Pay Signal Index, indexed trends in hourly pay for hourly positions and a summary of labor market situation for Instawork Professionals (Pros). Since businesses can book shifts in advance on the Instawork platform, the metrics include forward-looking data for the current month as well. 

Instawork Pay Signal Index

The labor market demonstrated a notable improvement in March, exceeding our forecast outlined in last month's briefing. A key indicator of this positive trend is the increase in the number of businesses implementing pay raises compared to February. This is likely attributed to heightened activity within industrial sectors, as companies strive to bolster their inventory levels ahead of potential tariffs. Instawork's early booking data indicates that this trend will slow down slightly in April. You can read more about the Instawork Pay Signal Index methodology here.  

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National Hourly Pay Trends

Instawork's National Hourly Pay Trend data provides a unique lens into pay trends, offering insights that can inform labor planning. This analysis focuses on the data from April 2024 to April 2025, revealing patterns and potential implications for businesses relying on hourly workers.

Last month we predicted a potential increase in Warehouse Associates' hourly pay for March, reflecting anticipated demand. This prediction was largely accurate. Similarly the Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI) shows expansion, primarily fueled by growing inventory levels and associated costs. This behavior suggests that companies are taking precautionary measures to mitigate potential disruptions and cost hikes caused by possible future tariffs. 

Overall, the data suggests that the logistics sector is experiencing growth and increased activity, but also faces uncertainty due to potential trade policy changes. Companies are adjusting their strategies to manage these risks and ensure they can meet future demand.

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The hospitality sector experienced a mixed bag in terms of pay rate changes in March. While Dishwasher rates saw a slight uptick, the increase was less pronounced than in the previous month. This minor gain was overshadowed by a broader trend of pay rate decreases across other key positions. Line Cook, Prep Cook, Busser, and Barback all faced a decline in their pay rates during March. These developments align with the broader economic picture painted by the Bank of America's Consumer Checkpoint report, which indicated a continued decline in restaurant spending. This suggests that the hospitality industry is grappling with financial pressures that are impacting both employment costs and consumer behavior.  

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Instawork Professionals Employment Sentiment 

We survey Pros' labor market situations on a monthly basis. March showed no changes in Instawork Pros’ ability to find flexible work on Instawork but there is a noticeable decrease in their ability to find flexible work on other platforms. Compared to last month, Pros also found it relatively easier to find full-time and part-time opportunities besides shifts on the Instawork platform. 

In February, Instawork Pros were generally able to find up to 30 hours of work per week. However, it became progressively more difficult for Pros to find additional work opportunities beyond the 30-hour mark. This suggests that while there was a good amount of work available for Pros to reach a standard full-time work week, opportunities for overtime or extended hours were more limited. 

Unexpected economic or policy changes and rapid shifts in demand can all impact pay trends. Our forecasts are based on current data, and we continuously monitor the market for emerging factors. Make sure to subscribe to Instawork’s Economic Research for the latest analysis and insights into the hourly labor market.

About Instawork Pay Signal Index

The Pay Signal Index is the weighted ratio of Partners who have increased, decreased or not changed their hourly pay. We've mapped Instawork positions to Census Bureau's occupational groups that are representative of ~42% of US hourly workers. Starting this month, we are presenting reorganized, rebalanced, and re-indexed statistics with April 2024 as their base. You can read more about the Instawork Pay Signal Index methodology here.